Why Some Routes Are Permanently Expensive
Why Some Routes
Are Permanently Expensive
You’re booking a flight from Atlanta to Des Moines. It’s $450 — one-way. You check the same route next month — still $450. You check it a year from now — still $450. Meanwhile, flights to New York or Chicago are constantly on sale. Why do some routes never get cheaper?
The answer lies in a toxic combination of market power, geographic isolation, and high operating costs. While most travelers are used to the ebb and flow of airline sales, there exists a parallel universe of routes where prices are as rigid as steel — and never go on sale. In this deep dive, we’ll explore the structural reasons behind these permanently expensive routes, from the economics of “fortress hubs” to the harsh reality of captive markets and regional airport costs.
🏰 The Fortress Hub Monopoly
The single most powerful driver of permanently high airfares is the fortress hub — an airport where a single airline controls 70% or more of the traffic[reference:0]. When an airline dominates a hub, it has pricing power that allows it to charge whatever the market will bear, with no fear of competition undercutting it.
The fortress hub system costs travelers — especially business travelers — billions of dollars per year in excess fares[reference:3][reference:4]. The concentration of market power in the hands of one or two airlines “inevitably leads to the temptation by the dominant carriers to raise prices to higher levels than would be the case if there was significant competition”[reference:5].
The fortress hub problem is compounded by a collective decision by the major airlines not to compete in each other’s hub markets[reference:7]. This “de facto agreement” among the largest carriers to stay out of each other’s fortress hubs has been described as a potential violation of antitrust laws[reference:8][reference:9]. The result is a system where dominant airlines “are free to charge the spoke passenger — who must use the hub to get to his or her destination — excessive monopoly fares”[reference:10].
📋 The Monopoly Effect: Real-World Examples
The impact of monopoly power on airfares is not theoretical. Here are real-world examples of how market dominance drives prices sky-high:
📌 Case Study 1: EasyJet’s Basel Monopoly – Prices Up 1,682%
During a five-week runway renovation at Basel’s Euroairport, EasyJet was the only airline able to operate, giving it a de facto monopoly[reference:11]. The result? Ticket prices skyrocketed by up to 1,682% on some routes[reference:12]. A flight to London went from 24 CHF to 223 CHF (+817%), and a flight to Mallorca from 29 CHF to 515 CHF (+1,682%)[reference:13]. The price watchdog declined to intervene because the monopoly was temporary[reference:14].
💡 Lesson: Even a temporary monopoly can cause fares to skyrocket. Imagine what a permanent monopoly does to prices.
📌 Case Study 2: El Al’s Wartime Monopoly – 16% Average Fare Increase
During the early months of the Gaza war, foreign airlines suspended service to Israel, giving El Al a de facto monopoly on 38 of its 53 routes, including major destinations like London, New York, Paris, and Bangkok[reference:15]. The Israel Competition Authority found that fares rose by an average of 16%, with some routes recording increases of up to 31%[reference:16][reference:17]. Even on flights that were not full, El Al raised prices by about 25%[reference:18].
💡 Lesson: When competition disappears, prices immediately increase — even when there are empty seats on the plane.
🏝️ Captive Markets: When You Have No Choice
Some destinations are geographically isolated — islands, remote towns, or regions with limited transport alternatives. Travelers to these places have no substitute; they must fly, and they must fly with whoever serves that route. This creates a captive market where airlines can charge premium fares year-round.
Classic examples include island destinations like Hawaii (some inter-island routes are dominated by Hawaiian Airlines) or remote communities in Alaska where only one carrier flies. Even within the continental U.S., cities like Bismarck, North Dakota or El Paso, Texas may have limited competition, leading to persistently high fares.
The “spoke passenger” — the traveler from a small to medium-sized community who must connect through a fortress hub — is particularly vulnerable[reference:19]. Because the dominant airline at the fortress hub has no competition, “it is free to charge the spoke passenger — who must use the hub to get to his or her destination — excessive monopoly fares”[reference:20]. These passengers are harmed on two levels: they lose service when airlines cut less profitable small community routes, and they pay exorbitant rates for the service that remains[reference:21].
🏢 The Regional Airport Cost Trap
Flights to and from regional airports are often shockingly expensive — and the reasons are deeply structural.
One might assume that shorter flights and lower demand would mean lower prices. In reality, the opposite is true. A simple, roughly one-hour nonstop flight from Newark to Ithaca, New York, can cost $270 one-way[reference:22]. A flight from Chicago to Ithaca can exceed $500 one-way — a fare that “could easily get one much further from the Windy City”[reference:23].
Why are regional flights so expensive? Several factors are at play:
- Economies of Scale: Regional airports have higher operating costs per flight because they process fewer passengers and fewer flights, resulting in higher unit costs[reference:24]. “On a per-flight basis, it is significantly cheaper for legacy airlines to operate flights to and from larger airports, where their massive number of flights improves their cost structure through economies of scale”[reference:25].
- Rising Airport Fees: Even regional airports are raising fees. Ryanair has cut routes across Europe, blaming rising airport fees, aviation taxes, and air traffic control costs[reference:26]. LATAM suspended its Lima–Orlando route after a new airport fee was introduced[reference:27]. Lufthansa has cut more than 100 domestic flights across Germany over airport fees that CEO Carsten Spohr says have doubled since 2019[reference:28].
- Pilot and Maintenance Shortages: Stakeholders have cited pilot and maintenance workforce supply challenges as factors contributing to reduced service to small communities[reference:29].
💼 The Business Travel Premium
Routes with heavy business travel demand tend to remain expensive because business travelers are price-insensitive. They book late, need flexibility, and are often not paying out of their own pockets.
The classic example is the New York–London corridor — one of the world’s busiest business routes. Even during off-peak seasons, fares rarely drop below $600 round-trip, and you’ll almost never see a “sale” in the traditional sense. Airlines know that corporate contracts and last-minute business bookings will fill the planes.
The fortress hub system particularly impacts business travelers. According to congressional testimony, “the time-sensitive business traveler is being charged exorbitant prices for business travel”[reference:30]. The “Big Seven” airlines have been accused of “reaping huge monopoly induced revenues — on the backs of the business traveler”[reference:31].
📊 The Cost of Serving Small Communities
According to a U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) report, average fares are higher for small communities due to a combination of higher operating costs and market power differences[reference:32]. The market power differences accounting for fare differences between small and large communities are “the result of the low density nature of small communities”[reference:33].
| Factor | Impact on Fares | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|
| Lack of Competition | +20–35% | Single airline dominance = pricing power |
| High Airport Fees | +10–20% | Costs passed to passengers |
| Low Density / Economies of Scale | +15–25% | Higher per-flight costs |
| Business Travel Demand | +10–30% | Price-insensitive customers |
| Pilot & Maintenance Shortages | +5–15% | Reduced supply |
📋 The “Never on Sale” Route Profile
Based on our analysis, routes that never go on sale share several common characteristics:
- High market concentration: One or two airlines control over 70% of seats (fortress hubs)
- Strong business demand: Corporate travelers fill seats at high prices
- Limited alternative transport: No trains, no competing airports nearby
- High barriers to entry: Slot-constrained airports or thin margins deter new entrants
- Regional airport costs: High per-flight operating costs
- Captive market: Passengers have no practical alternative to flying
As one expert noted, “Flights tend to get more expensive with length, and regional services tend to be among the shortest offered by any airline. … This, however, ultimately turns out to not be the case”[reference:34]. The paradox of regional air travel is that shorter flights to smaller cities often cost more than longer flights to major destinations.
🔮 The Future: Will Anything Change?
The trend in the airline industry is toward consolidation, which means fewer competitors on most routes. The U.S. airline industry is now dominated by four carriers that control over 80% of domestic capacity. This concentration is unlikely to reverse, meaning that monopoly and duopoly routes will remain stubbornly expensive.
However, there are glimmers of hope. The rise of ultra-low-cost carriers (ULCCs) like Frontier and Spirit has introduced competition on some routes. The U.S. Department of Transportation and Justice Department have launched a broad public inquiry into competition in air travel, noting that “competition in air travel is a vehicle for better quality, better fares, and better choices for Americans”[reference:35].
As one congressional statement noted, “Good service and fair prices depend on ensuring that there is real competition, which is especially challenging for the many American communities that have” limited options[reference:36]. Whether regulatory action will actually reduce the cost of permanently expensive routes remains to be seen.
🧭 How to Navigate Permanently Expensive Routes
If you’re flying to a route that never goes on sale, what can you do? Here are practical strategies to reduce your costs:
- Book early: Even if there are no sales, early booking can lock in a lower tier of fare class before buckets sell out.
- Use points and miles: When cash fares are high, redeeming miles often provides the best value. Look for sweet spots on partner airlines.
- Consider alternative airports: Flying into a nearby secondary airport might offer competition and lower fares.
- Check for positioning flights: Sometimes flying to a major hub and then taking a separate flight to your destination can be cheaper than a direct flight.
- Look for credit card offers: Airline credit cards often provide companion tickets or discounts that effectively lower the fare.
- Book through an OTA: Sometimes OTAs have exclusive deals, though the discount is often small.
- Use FlightInsight: Compare prices across all airlines and routes to find the least expensive option for your itinerary.
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Q1 Why are flights to some cities always expensive?
Flights to certain cities are permanently expensive due to a combination of limited competition (fortress hubs), high operating costs at regional airports, strong business travel demand, and geographic isolation (captive markets). When an airline has a monopoly or near-monopoly on a route, it has the pricing power to keep fares high[reference:37].
Q2 What is a fortress hub and why does it make flights expensive?
A fortress hub is an airport where a single airline controls 70% or more of the traffic[reference:38]. The dominant airline has no meaningful competition at its hub and can charge whatever the market will bear[reference:39]. This results in fares that are 27–35% higher than on competitive routes[reference:40].
Q3 Why are regional flights so expensive?
Regional flights are expensive because regional airports have higher operating costs per flight due to economies of scale[reference:41]. They process fewer passengers and fewer flights, which results in higher unit costs[reference:42]. Rising airport fees and pilot shortages also contribute to higher fares[reference:43][reference:44].
Q4 Do business travelers make flights more expensive?
Yes. Business travelers are typically price-insensitive — they book late, need flexibility, and are often not paying out of their own pockets. Airlines know this and hold the line on fares for business-heavy routes, rarely discounting them.
Q5 Will airline consolidation make these routes even more expensive?
Likely, yes. The trend toward airline consolidation reduces competition on most routes, giving dominant carriers even more pricing power. The U.S. airline industry is now dominated by four carriers that control over 80% of domestic capacity, making it unlikely that prices on fortress hub routes will decrease significantly.
Q6 What can I do to save money on permanently expensive routes?
Book early, use points and miles, consider alternative airports, look for positioning flights, and use FlightInsight to compare prices across all airlines. Even on routes that never go on sale, you can still find the best available fare by being flexible and strategic.
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